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Abstract Predicting tropical tree demography is a key challenge in understanding the future dynamics of tropical forests. Although demographic processes are known to be regulated by leaf trait diversity, only the effect of inter‐specific trait variation has been evaluated, and it remains unclear as to what degree the intra‐specific trait plasticity across light gradients (hereafter light plasticity) regulates tree demography, and how this will further shape long‐term community and ecosystem dynamics. By combining in situ trait measurements and forest census data with a terrestrial biosphere model, we evaluated the impact of observation‐constrained light plasticity on demography, forest structure, and biomass dynamics in a Panamanian tropical moist forest. Modeled leaf physiological traits vary across and within plant functional types (PFT), which represent the inter‐specific trait variation and the intra‐specific light plasticity, respectively. The simulation using three non‐plastic PFTs underestimated 20‐year average understory growth rates by 41%, leading to a biased forest size structure and leaf area profile, and a 44% underestimate in long‐term biomass. The simulation using three plastic PFTs generated accurate understory growth rates, resulting in a realistic forest structure and a smaller biomass underestimate of 15%. Expanding simulated trait diversity using 18 nonplastic PFTs similarly improved the prediction of demography and biomass. However, only the plasticity‐enabled model predicted realistic long‐term PFT composition and within‐canopy trait profiles. Our results highlight the distinct role of light plasticity in regulating forest dynamics that cannot be replaced by inter‐specific trait diversity. Accurately representing light plasticity is thus crucial for trait‐based prediction of tropical forest dynamics. 

Improving our ability to understand and predict the dynamics of the terrestrial carbon cycle remains a pressing challenge despite a rapidly growing volume and diversity of Earth Observation data. State data assimilation represents a path forward via an iterative cycle of making process-based forecasts and then statistically reconciling these forecasts against numerous ground-based and remotely-sensed data constraints into a “reanalysis” data product that provides full spatiotemporal carbon budgets with robust uncertainty accounting. Here we report on an >100x expansion of the PEcAn+SIPNET reanalysis from 500 sites CONUS, 25 ensemble members, and 2 data constraints to 6400 sites across North America, 100 ensemble members, and 5 data constraints: GEDI and Landtrendr AGB, MODIS LAI, SoilGrids Soil C, and SMAP soil moisture. We also report on an ensemble-based machine learning (ML) downscaling to a 1km product that preserves spatial, temporal, and across-variable covariances and demonstrate the impacts of these covariances on uncertainty accounting (Fig. 1). Synergistically, we use the same ML models to assess what climate, vegetation, and soil variables explain the spatiotemporal variability in different C pools and fluxes. In addition, we review a wide range of ongoing validation activities, comparing the outputs of the reanalysis against withheld data from: Ameriflux and NEON NEE and LE; USFS Forest Inventory biomass, biomass increment, tree rings, soil C, and litter; and NEON soil C and soil respiration. Finally, we touch on ML analyses to diagnose and correct systematic biases and emulator-based recalibration efforts. 

Abstract Under increasingly variable rainfall, trends toward more intense and less frequent daily‐scale precipitation have been identified using regional and global averages. However, it has not been explicitly demonstrated whether and where these trends are co‐located, which is important given their potential impacts on land surface processes. Here, using global observation and model‐based data sets, we find that trends toward fewer, larger daily precipitation events are common and relatively distributed across terrestrial ecosystems; they are approximately as common as trends toward more, larger daily precipitation events (which underpin increases in annual precipitation totals). Therefore, widespread precipitation intensification is not consistently increasing annual precipitation totals partly because precipitation events, especially of small‐to‐moderate depths (<10 mm/day), are simultaneously becoming less frequent. Independent of the consequences of changes in mean annual precipitation, these daily‐scale precipitation alterations can substantially impact water resource availability, floods, land‐atmosphere interactions, crop yields, wildfire fuel loads, and carbon sequestration. 

Summary Allocation of leaf phosphorus (P) among different functional fractions represents a crucial adaptive strategy for optimizing P use. However, it remains challenging to monitor the variability in leaf P fractions and, ultimately, to understand P‐use strategies across diverse plant communities.We explored relationships between five leaf P fractions (orthophosphate P, P_i; lipid P, P_L; nucleic acid P, P_N; metabolite P, P_M; and residual P, P_R) and 11 leaf economic traits of 58 woody species from three biomes in China, including temperate, subtropical and tropical forests. Then, we developed trait‐based models and spectral models for leaf P fractions and compared their predictive abilities.We found that plants exhibiting conservative strategies increased the proportions of P_Nand P_M, but decreased the proportions of P_iand P_L, thus enhancing photosynthetic P‐use efficiency, especially under P limitation. Spectral models outperformed trait‐based models in predicting cross‐site leaf P fractions, regardless of concentrations (R² = 0.50–0.88 vs 0.34–0.74) or proportions (R² = 0.43–0.70 vs 0.06–0.45).These findings enhance our understanding of leaf P‐allocation strategies and highlight reflectance spectroscopy as a promising alternative for characterizing large‐scale leaf P fractions and plant P‐use strategies, which could ultimately improve the physiological representation of the plant P cycle in land surface models. 

Summary Leaf dark respiration (R_dark), an important yet rarely quantified component of carbon cycling in forest ecosystems, is often simulated from leaf traits such as the maximum carboxylation capacity (V_cmax), leaf mass per area (LMA), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations, in terrestrial biosphere models. However, the validity of these relationships across forest types remains to be thoroughly assessed.Here, we analyzedR_darkvariability and its associations withV_cmaxand other leaf traits across three temperate, subtropical and tropical forests in China, evaluating the effectiveness of leaf spectroscopy as a superior monitoring alternative.We found that leaf magnesium and calcium concentrations were more significant in explaining cross‐siteR_darkthan commonly used traits like LMA, N and P concentrations, but univariate trait–R_darkrelationships were always weak (r² ≤ 0.15) and forest‐specific. Although multivariate relationships of leaf traits improved the model performance, leaf spectroscopy outperformed trait–R_darkrelationships, accurately predicted cross‐siteR_dark(r² = 0.65) and pinpointed the factors contributing toR_darkvariability.Our findings reveal a few novel traits with greater cross‐site scalability regardingR_dark, challenging the use of empirical trait–R_darkrelationships in process models and emphasize the potential of leaf spectroscopy as a promising alternative for estimatingR_dark, which could ultimately improve process modeling of terrestrial plant respiration. 

Abstract Navigating uncertainty is a critical challenge in all fields of science, especially when translating knowledge into real-world policies or management decisions. However, the wide variance in concepts and definitions of uncertainty across scientific fields hinders effective communication. As a microcosm of diverse fields within Earth Science, NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) provides a useful crucible in which to identify cross-cutting concepts of uncertainty. The CMS convened the Uncertainty Working Group (UWG), a group of specialists across disciplines, to evaluate and synthesize efforts to characterize uncertainty in CMS projects. This paper represents efforts by the UWG to build a heuristic framework designed to evaluate data products and communicate uncertainty to both scientific and non-scientific end users. We consider four pillars of uncertainty: origins, severity, stochasticity versus incomplete knowledge, and spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Using a common vocabulary and a generalized workflow, the framework introduces a graphical heuristic accompanied by a narrative, exemplified through contrasting case studies. Envisioned as a versatile tool, this framework provides clarity in reporting uncertainty, guiding users and tempering expectations. Beyond CMS, it stands as a simple yet powerful means to communicate uncertainty across diverse scientific communities. 

Abstract Lianas, woody vines acting as structural parasites of trees, have profound effects on the composition and structure of tropical forests, impacting tree growth, mortality, and forest succession. Remote sensing could offer a powerful tool for quantifying the scale of liana infestation, provided the availability of robust detection methods. We analyze the consistency and global geographic specificity of spectral signals—reflectance across wavelengths—from liana‐infested tree crowns and forest stands, examining the underlying mechanisms of these signals. We compiled a uniquely comprehensive database, including leaf reflectance spectra from 5424 leaves, fine‐scale airborne reflectance data from 999 liana‐infested canopies, and coarse‐scale satellite reflectance data covering 775 ha of liana‐infested forest stands. To unravel the mechanisms of the liana spectral signal, we applied mechanistic radiative transfer models across scales, establishing a synthesis of the relative importance of different mechanisms, which we corroborate with field data on liana leaf chemistry and canopy structure. We find a consistent liana spectral signal at canopy and stand scales across globally distributed sites. This signature mainly arises at the canopy level due to direct effects of more horizontal leaf angles, resulting in a larger projected leaf area, and indirect effects from increased light scattering in the near and short‐wave infrared regions, linked to lianas' less costly leaf construction compared with trees on average. The existence of a consistent global spectral signal for lianas suggests that large‐scale quantification of liana infestation is feasible. However, because the traits responsible for the liana canopy‐reflectance signal are not exclusive to lianas, accurate large‐scale detection requires rigorously validated remote sensing methods. Our models highlight challenges in automated detection, such as potential misidentification due to leaf phenology, tree life history, topography, and climate, especially where the scale of liana infestation is less than a single remote sensing pixel. The observed cross‐site patterns also prompt ecological questions about lianas' adaptive similarities in optical traits across environments, indicating possible convergent evolution due to shared constraints on leaf biochemical and structural traits. 

Abstract Climate change is having significant impacts on Earth’s ecosystems and carbon budgets, and in the Arctic may drive a shift from an historic carbon sink to a source. Large uncertainties in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) used to forecast Arctic changes demonstrate the challenges of determining the timing and extent of this possible switch. This spread in model predictions can limit the ability of TBMs to guide management and policy decisions. One of the most influential sources of model uncertainty is model parameterization. Parameter uncertainty results in part from a mismatch between available data in databases and model needs. We identify that mismatch for three TBMs, DVM-DOS-TEM, SIPNET and ED2, and four databases with information on Arctic and boreal above- and belowground traits that may be applied to model parametrization. However, focusing solely on such data gaps can introduce biases towards simple models and ignores structural model uncertainty, another main source for model uncertainty. Therefore, we develop a causal loop diagram (CLD) of the Arctic and boreal ecosystem that includes unquantified, and thus unmodeled, processes. We map model parameters to processes in the CLD and assess parameter vulnerability via the internal network structure. One important substructure, feed forward loops (FFLs), describe processes that are linked both directly and indirectly. When the model parameters are data-informed, these indirect processes might be implicitly included in the model, but if not, they have the potential to introduce significant model uncertainty. We find that the parameters describing the impact of local temperature on microbial activity are associated with a particularly high number of FFLs but are not constrained well by existing data. By employing ecological models of varying complexity, databases, and network methods, we identify the key parameters responsible for limited model accuracy. They should be prioritized for future data sampling to reduce model uncertainty. 

Abstract Background and AimsTropical forests exchange more carbon dioxide (CO2) with the atmosphere than any other terrestrial biome. Yet, uncertainty in the projected carbon balance over the next century is roughly three times greater for the tropics than other for ecosystems. Our limited knowledge of tropical plant physiological responses, including photosynthetic, to climate change is a substantial source of uncertainty in our ability to forecast the global terrestrial carbon sink. MethodsWe used a meta-analytic approach, focusing on tropical photosynthetic temperature responses, to address this knowledge gap. Our dataset, gleaned from 18 independent studies, included leaf-level light-saturated photosynthetic (Asat) temperature responses from 108 woody species, with additional temperature parameters (35 species) and rates (250 species) of both maximum rates of electron transport (Jmax) and Rubisco carboxylation (Vcmax). We investigated how these parameters responded to mean annual temperature (MAT), temperature variability, aridity and elevation, as well as also how responses differed among successional strategy, leaf habit and light environment. Key ResultsOptimum temperatures for Asat (ToptA) and Jmax (ToptJ) increased with MAT but not for Vcmax (ToptV). Although photosynthetic rates were higher for ‘light’ than ‘shaded’ leaves, light conditions did not generate differences in temperature response parameters. ToptA did not differ with successional strategy, but early successional species had ~4 °C wider thermal niches than mid/late species. Semi-deciduous species had ~1 °C higher ToptA than broadleaf evergreen species. Most global modelling efforts consider all tropical forests as a single ‘broadleaf evergreen’ functional type, but our data show that tropical species with different leaf habits display distinct temperature responses that should be included in modelling efforts. ConclusionsThis novel research will inform modelling efforts to quantify tropical ecosystem carbon cycling and provide more accurate representations of how these key ecosystems will respond to altered temperature patterns in the face of climate warming. 

Abstract. Accurate assessment of leaf functional traits is crucial for a diverse range of applications from crop phenotyping to parameterizing global climate models. Leaf reflectance spectroscopy offers a promising avenue to advance ecological and agricultural research by complementing traditional, time-consuming gas exchange measurements. However, the development of robust hyperspectral models for predicting leaf photosynthetic capacity and associated traits from reflectance data has been hindered by limited data availability across species and environments. Here we introduce the Global Spectra-Trait Initiative (GSTI), a collaborative repository of paired leaf hyperspectral and gas exchange measurements from diverse ecosystems. The GSTI repository currently encompasses over 7500 observations from 397 species and 41 sites gathered from 36 published and unpublished studies, thereby offering a key resource for developing and validating hyperspectral models of leaf photosynthetic capacity. The GSTI database is developed on GitHub (https://github.com/plantphys/gsti, last access: 4 January 2026) and published to ESS-DIVE https://doi.org/10.15485/2530733, Lamour et al., 2025). It includes gas exchange data, derived photosynthetic parameters, and key leaf traits often associated with traditional gas exchange measurements such as leaf mass per area and leaf elemental composition. By providing a standardized repository for data sharing and analysis, we present a critical step towards creating hyperspectral models for predicting photosynthetic traits and associated leaf traits for terrestrial plants.